Modelling results - by Sheikh Zuhaib, BPIE

Mr. Zuhaib first introduced the scope and limitations of the modelling exercise. Key facts in this included:

  • that figures are estimations based on a limited availability of data, as few BRP evaluations exist
  • that the status quo scenario is a trajectory based on historical trends (no integration of potential future trends)
  • that the effect of climate change has not been reflected in calculations.

Impact has been estimated for the following 9 impact categories

  • number of BRPs
  • EPC ratings
  • energy demand
  • CO2-emissions
  • residential energy expenditure
  • health benefits
  • on-site renewables
  • triggered private investments
  • required public investments

The number of building renovation passports reaches a total of 160 million by 2050 in policy package 6 and 50 million in policy package 2, compared to 5-25 million in the remaining policy packages. Policy package 2 and 6 both assume that building renovation passports become mandatory for some building types at certain occasions, which is assumed to cause a rapid increase of issued passports.   

All the policy packages are expected to trigger considerable energy and CO2 emission savings. The range of final energy demand reductions in buildings is estimated to be 3-8% per year by 2050 compared to a scenario with no BRP policies in place. Depending on the policy package, the CO2 emissions are estimated to be between 11 and 33 million tonnes lower per year in 2050 for the residential buildings and 5-10 million tonnes for non-residential buildings. The impact of policy packages 5 and 6 indicate that for residential buildings, energy expenditure in the EU will be 23-27 billion € lower per year in 2050, due to the number of BRP renovations conducted by then.

Health benefits are quantified on the basis of avoided sick days due to healthier indoor environments. The related cost savings range up to more than 2 billion € per year. The policy packages that target the most inefficient buildings, which are assumed to be the unhealthiest, reaches the highest reduction in sick days and related costs.  

At this point, several stakeholders requested clarifications on the definition and specification of absenteeism and related impacts on quality of life and productivity at school or work. One stakeholder noted that the impact on indoor air quality is an important factor which must be included in the calculations as such. The French example shows that, due to its complex nature, indoor air quality is difficult, though not impossible, to be considered in the definition and calculations.

The impact on on-site renewables is estimated through the expected increase in residential heat pumps and solar PV. The impact on the number of heat pumps are estimated to range between 3 and 12% by 2050, compared to a no-policy scenario. The impact on the total capacity of solar PV installations is estimated to range between 2% and 8% by 2050, compared to a no-policy scenario.

In relation to renewables, stakeholders informed about the current share of the building stock considered to have on-site production.

Triggered private investment is the additional investment assumed to be caused by building renovation passports. Policy packages 2, 4, 5 and 6 indicate the highest triggered private investments, ranging from 1.2 to 2 billion € of additional private investment per year.   

The comments that followed focused on the following points:

  • Ageing of the building stock throughout the years is not considered in the calculations
  • Clarifications were requested on the part of the investment that is covered by public funding
  • The assumed height of the total renovation cost was questioned
  • The trigger of investments by green mortgages is not considered

Public investments are calculated for different actions connected to the various policy packages and concern in summary (conservative estimations):

  • 250,000 - 600,000 € for expanding the EPC to include the building renovation passport for each implementing MS
  • 90,000 € for communication and training actions for each implementing MS
  • 300 € average subsidy for the preparation of an individual building renovation passport for residential buildings (100 € for the building owner)

There was quite extensive discussion around the cost/quality ratio, as well as how to relate the cost for the building renovation passport to energy savings. Smart ways for reducing the cost burden without jeopardising the quality were discussed as, e.g., in the case of connecting the building renovation passport with the existing EPC schemes.

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